Political analysis on Egypt and the Region…….. Author Unknown

The international stage, whether those who oppose or support Egypt is secondary to the battles on the ground, but it can all be easily explained when one evaluates actions based on interests and not emotionality.

> The US and EU have a keen interest to ensure that Egypt remains in a subordinate state that guarantees the safety and security of Israel…which was in jeopardy after the 25Th Jan. revolution, thus it became imperative to seek an alternative, and the MB provide just such an alternative but in a way that far exceeds the utility provided by the Mubarak regime, simply because their subordination is combined with an ideology that is contrary to the nation-state concept, as such the incorporation of Hamas into Sinai (and the effective end to the nationalist Fatah), the chipping away of Egypt’s southern border and the breaking up of Egypt’s armed forces are all possible elements that can be incorporated in any deal in a manner that could never be possible before.

Therefore it is only natural that the West fully support the MB, not just because of what the MB can provide, but also because the emergence of an independent and nationally oriented Egypt (whether liberal or autocratic is secondary to the west, but important for us)is simply too great a risk to take. Erdogan’s Turkey is also easy to understand when one analyses the MB roots of his party, but also the potential for personal aggrandizement that can result to Erdogan and his party if a regime that believes in the caliphate over the state, and thus a potentially preeminent role for the heirs of the Ottoman empire where Egypt is subordinate assumes power in Cairo.

The alignment of Europe, the US, and Turkey presents an interesting mix that brings to the forefront a near unified NATO position, if for completely different reasons. Make no mistake, our political ’56 is against NATO.

> On the other hand you have Russia and to a much lesser degree that is mainly economic in nature, China, that are interested to move in and consolidate gains as a result of US/EU loss of influence, especially after the recent events in Libya and the ongoing conflict in Syria with its Iran and HezbAllah dimensions. In the same camp, yet also for entirely different reasons, we find most GCC countries and Arab monarchies headed by Saudi that are threatened by the concept of an MB government in Egypt which can possibly directly impact their own regime survival for ideological and domestic political reasons. It is worth mentioning that perhaps the only country that genuinely has an emotionally attached position derived from its leadership’s background towards Egypt is the UAE.

> In the first half of the 20th Century Egypt gave birth to two conflicting ideologies,

1-Nationalism (based on the nation-state concept that would develop into Pan-Arabism) and

2- Islamism (based on a Caliphate/ Pan-Islamism that revokes the very concept of the nation-state). Egypt is essentially now settling the battle between the two ideologies that were born here almost a hundred years ago, and just as both ideologies impacted the region and the world, the result of the outcome will also be historic.

> This is actually one of the core psychological reasons behind the high propensity for violence exhibited by the MB and their imported Hamas fighters…they see us Egyptians and the State itself as “the other”…they are a closed cult type terrorist group that has few ties outside its circles…which is not the case with the police or army or the rest of the Egyptian population.

> The struggle now is thus between the State of Egypt, a national and independent sovereign entity (liberal or autocratic), and the district of Egypt, a vassal, non-independent, theocratic entity that is subordinate to a foreign caliph type leadership.

I ask you, if you were the West, and you had to choose between both, it’s not really a difficult choice to make in order to protect your interests, and it is a decision that they took a while back when they supported the MB/Hamas in its formative years to undermine nationalist movements.

The US/EU and their MB allies are just playing it very poorly, and the Egyptian people and state and civilization are proving to be more resilient than they had hoped…. I ask them to read up on some history…we broke the Hyksos, we broke the Mongols, we broke the Crusades, we broke traditional Colonialism….and Insha’Allah we will break you too…we have not been labeled the Graveyard of Invaders for nothing…so start digging.


One thought on “Political analysis on Egypt and the Region…….. Author Unknown

  1. Dear Nile, this article provides a great analysis. I thank you for posting these informations as it is so hard to have a clear idea of what’s going on through the European medias. Think of you with all my heart. Irina

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